Gas Price Solutions

Recent gas prices have politicians scrambling to demonstrate that they’ll find a solution with yet another case of the common congressional “do something” syndrome. The one economically logical argument that has been forwarded by some members of Congress, and which is supported by the majority of the American people, is to allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Opponents of this solution have blocked it, however, arguing that opening these lands to exploration and drilling won’t affect gas prices for another five to ten years.

I’ve always struggled with the argument that we shouldn’t do anything because it won’t affect gas prices now. I fail to understand the problem with planning ahead. Even if increasing our domestic supply of oil won’t affect prices for five to ten years, I would still prefer that we take action now to reduce the prices that we’ll face in the future.

It turns out, however, that the notion that it will take five to ten years for expanded access to domestic oil reserves to affect prices is utterly absurd. Two professors of economics, Gary Pecquet of Central Michigan University and Dr. R. Morris Coats of Nicholls State University, recently found in their research that opening ANWR to drilling would lower the price of oil. I would expect that the same result would apply to allowing drilling in OCS.

This story gets better, however. Professors Pecquet and Coats submitted a paper describing the results of their research to The Energy Journal, a publication of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). That paper was actually rejected by the journal. Why? Not because the referees disagreed with the results of the research. Instead, the paper was rejected because economists have known the results of the professors’ research since the 1960s, and the journal only publishes “original research that adds significantly to the body of knowledge regarding energy markets and policy.”

In other words, the argument being used by some members of Congress was disproved forty years ago. If Congress really wants to do something about gas prices, then they’ll allow drilling in ANWR and OCS now. Instead, however, it looks like far too many members of our illustrious legislative body are more interested in playing politics with valuable policy.

One Response to “Gas Price Solutions”

  1. mcoats Says:

    Devin,

    I would like to point out that the piece that Gary Pecquet and I wrote was originally conceived as a teaching piece, and we had no pretenses that we had any breakthrough, but were encouraged to submit it to the Energy Journal. The only correction I want to make to your very nice piece is to your last paragraph, where you state that the argument being used by members of Congress was disproved forty years ago. That is not really accurate at all. It was disproved by the work set forth in the seminal paper on the topic, a paper by Harold Hotelling in his article, The economics of exhaustible resources, Journal of Political Economy (1931). Yes, that is right, 1931. That is 77 years ago, not just a mere 40 years ago. In other words, as old as McCain may be, the economics on this, and far more elaborately than in our simple model, was developed well before John McCain was born.

    Morris Coats
    Professor of Economics
    Nicholls State University

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